UCLA Professor Lynn Vavreck Presents Research to AP Government Students

10/15/2018

On Thursday, Oct. 11, Marymount hosted UCLA professor, Lynn Vavreck, Ph.D., for a special speaker session.

History faculty member Dr. Chris Baylor introduced students to his mentor and former teacher, Dr. Vavreck, the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA, who recently published her co-authored book, Identity Crisis, about the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Dr. Vavreck spoke to students about her statistics-driven research based on hundreds of thousands of survey responses, which found:

Election outcomes usually depend more the state of the country, including a good or a bad economy, than on choices made by the candidates. Advertising and campaign strategies matter mainly in close elections.
The middling economy of 2016 meant that it would be a close election between Democrats and Republicans, and it was. The outcome was almost exactly what one would expect based on economic statistics alone.
Where neither candidate could run on the economy, their messages mattered in swaying enough voters to win. Clinton and Trump put forth different messages of what it meant to be an American.

"Our classes have talked a lot about the forthcoming midterm elections and the polarized nature of the political parties,” said Dr. Baylor. “Professor Vavreck's talk showed students how statistics are used to understand elections and polarization. The students were riveted and asked great questions that drew on material we discussed earlier this year."

After her presentation, Dr. Vavreck took questions from students, including what role, if any, she thought Russia played in the election.

“Our conclusion is that it is highly unlikely that the Russians affected the outcome of the 2016 election – that doesn’t mean that they weren’t meddling, and it doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t care,” said Dr. Vavreck, who noted that despite the billions of dollars spent on campaign electioneering and advertising by American candidates, political parties, and interest groups, those efforts persuade only a very small group of voters for a very short amount of time.

Dr. Vavreck studies, teaches, and writes about campaigns and elections. She contributes regularly to the New York Times’ column “The Upshot,” and wrote The Gamble, an award-winning book about the 2012 election. In 2014, she hosted and interviewed Hillary Clinton at UCLA’s Luskin Lecture on Thought Leadership, and, the following year, she was awarded an Andrew F. Carnegie Fellowship to investigate the influence of political advertising. Her research has been supported by the National Science Foundation, and she has served on the advisory boards of both the British and American National Election Studies.

Dr. Vavreck holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Rochester and held previous appointments at Princeton University, Dartmouth College, and The White House.

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